Can Anyone Stop Gianni Infantino's Re-Election as FIFA President?

Little more than two months after the Fifa Forward Enterprise plan became public, a proposal to sell off part of the World Cup's commercial rights to a private equity firm, the chances of Gianni Infantino losing the FIFA presidency look slim. The Swiss-Italian, who only weeks ago appeared cornered, now heads toward the decisive phase with his re-election seemingly on track.

• Gianni Infantino was first elected FIFA president in 2016 and is now seeking another term.
• The nomination deadline closes on 18 November, and with 40 days remaining, senior football figures believe he may have no opponent.
• UEFA tried to use the Fifa Forward Enterprise scandal to remove him, but has failed to find a candidate.
• Canadian Victor Montagliani, seen as the most likely challenger, has decided to stay on as Concacaf president.
• Africa, South America and Oceania back Infantino, while Europe, North and Central America and Asia stand against him.

How Infantino Went from Vulnerable to Closing In on an Uncontested Re-Election

There was a time, not so long ago, when almost everyone believed Gianni Infantino's days as FIFA president were numbered. The leak of the Fifa Forward Enterprise plan landed a heavy blow on a leader who had previously seemed untouchable. All of a sudden, his position looked not just vulnerable but outright untenable.

UEFA saw the scandal as a golden opportunity to cut the head off the snake. The problem was that the European body did not quite have the weapons to pull it off against a figure who has built considerable support across the rest of the world. With the calendar moving forward and no serious challenger in sight, the stage is set for another coronation at the FIFA Congress in Rabat on 18 March.

Infantino's Global Tour to Lock Down His FIFA Presidential Bid

Since calling the FIFA management board to Rabat on 5 August to discuss the Fifa Forward Enterprise, Infantino has travelled the world to cement his position. He went to Colombia for the inauguration of the country's new president, Abelardo de la Espriella, and later visited a FIFA-funded youth football tournament in the Dominican Republic.

Over the weekend he attended the Fifa Asean Cup final in Jakarta, Indonesia, and this week he took part in an African football conference in Cape Verde. It has been business as usual for the Swiss-Italian, who has turned these trips into a de facto campaign trail of handshakes, photo opportunities and public shows of support from national associations.

The Electoral Deadlock: Why Europe Cannot Build an Alternative to Infantino

World football remains split along basic lines. UEFA, Concacaf and Asia stand against Infantino, while Africa, South America and Oceania support him. That balance creates a paradox: the president could be re-elected with the backing of only around half of FIFA's 211 member associations.

UEFA has spelled out the profile it wants: a respected and unifying figure, deeply rooted in football, with an unequivocal commitment to development, reform, integrity and independence. But the European body has not been able to identify that person. Victor Montagliani, the Concacaf president, had been put forward for months as the most credible opponent, a non-European who could unite the opposition and perhaps bring others on board. However, the Canadian never said publicly that he wanted the job.

Montagliani has already told staff that he intends to stand for re-election at Concacaf, ending any suggestion of a late entry into the presidential race. While Infantino's opponents keep looking for a candidate, the president himself has effectively been out campaigning. Only Ramon Vega, the former Tottenham and Switzerland defender, has put himself forward, but it seems unlikely that he will even gather the five required letters of support from the 211 member associations, just as happened four years ago.

FIFA Money as the Ultimate Shield: One Billion Dollars Invested in Africa

The funding model is what has made Infantino's position so hard to crack, even in the face of accusations that he has worked against the wider interests of the game. His message in Cape Verde was direct: FIFA has invested $1bn in Africa over ten years. At that same event, and for the third time this year, the 54 African nations, which carry more than a quarter of the votes, pledged their unconditional support.

That kind of investment does not just buy votes. It buys loyalty too. Away from Europe, which holds 55 votes, Infantino has it in abundance. It also explains why removing a FIFA president is so difficult: the organization has only had five presidents in the past 65 years, and only once, when England's Sir Stanley Rous lost in 1974, has an incumbent been beaten at the ballot box.

The Legal Battle: UEFA Plays Its Last Card over the Fifa Forward Enterprise

Next Thursday, Infantino will come face-to-face with his fiercest critics for the first time at a meeting of the FIFA Council in Zurich. The Fifa Forward Enterprise is not the only issue on the table. The Fifa Peace Prize awarded to Donald Trump and the US president's subsequent intervention in Folarin Balogun's red card at the World Cup will also be discussed. UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin is expected to attend in person, along with the other eight European representatives, including FA chair Debbie Hewitt.

Ceferin, who confirmed on Wednesday that he will run for a fourth term at UEFA, has campaigned relentlessly to replace Infantino. Even so, UEFA internally accepted some time ago that there was little chance of removing the FIFA president through democratic means. The European body always held one key card, one tool capable of delivering a fatal blow: the threat of a boycott of FIFA competitions. And it had to be used to get the Fifa Forward Enterprise scrapped.

Hours after peace appeared to break out with UEFA withdrawing its boycott threat, the organization filed claims in three US courts in an attempt to obtain documents related to the Fifa Forward Enterprise. If those papers contain anything incriminating, UEFA intends to pursue criminal mismanagement through the Swiss courts in the hope of forcing Infantino out. Until now there have only been tit-for-tat legal exchanges.

When you go through a journey, sometimes concerns are raised. When they are raised, we have to address them. As far as we are concerned at FIFA, we address them always with the spirit of dialogue and with open arms, an open heart and an open mind. We can always be better and do better.

Even if Infantino has no opponent at the ballot box, the battle among lawyers looks set to continue well into next year. If the president stays in power, UEFA wants reform of FIFA's governance. But the European body has faced unexpected resistance on this front too.

The New Governance Front and the Redistribution of FIFA's Reserves

Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa, president of the Asian confederation and a FIFA vice-president who sits on the Council, had been one of Infantino's harshest critics. But this week, in a letter sent to Ceferin, Montagliani and Infantino, he distanced himself from a wholesale redesign of FIFA's governance system. Al Khalifa argued that change should be driven by the football institutions themselves rather than outsourced to an external party.

UEFA also wants each national association to receive an additional $10m from FIFA's vast reserves of around $6bn. In a strange way, if Infantino gave in to that demand, it would probably strengthen his position even more. After all, money is a proven vote-winner for a FIFA president.