Champions League 2025-26: favourites, players to watch and league phase draw

The Champions League returns on Tuesday with the start of the league phase and a burning question: can Paris Saint-Germain make it three European crowns in a row? Nobody has managed that since Cristiano Ronaldo's Real Madrid between 2015 and 2018. The Parisians defend their throne, but the numbers point to Arsenal and Bayern Munich as the main threats in the race for the trophy that will be handed out in Madrid on 5 June.

• PSG are targeting a European three-peat not seen since Real Madrid's golden era.
• Opta's model makes Arsenal the overall favourites with a 20.4% chance of winning.
• Five English clubs sit inside the top ten in title probability.
• Jude Bellingham, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Lamine Yamal are among the players to watch.
• Liverpool have the easiest league phase schedule according to the data.

Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Manchester City chase PSG's crown

Opta's predictive model gives Arsenal a 20.4% probability of lifting the Champions League, just ahead of Bayern Munich on 20%. The Bavarian side were knocked out by PSG in last season's semi-finals and now stand as the biggest threat to the Parisians. Manchester City, champions in 2023, come third with 12.7%, while PSG sit fourth with a 7.3% chance of retaining the title.

All five Premier League representatives are ranked inside the top ten for overall win probability and each has more than a 50% chance of reaching the last 16. Arsenal, runners-up last season after losing to PSG, want the final step that has eluded them since their 2005-06 final defeat against Barcelona.

How the league phase draw stacks up for Europe's giants

The league phase draw has produced very different paths. According to Opta's power rankings, Liverpool have the easiest schedule of any side, while Stuttgart enjoy the smoothest run overall and Inter Milan have the most favourable route among the pot one teams.

Arsenal can also feel pleased with their draw. Despite landing Real Madrid and Bayern Munich from pot one, Mikel Arteta's side were also paired with the two lowest-ranked teams in the competition: Sabah and Slovan Bratislava.

Manchester City, on the other hand, face the toughest fixtures of the English clubs. Only five teams across the entire competition have a harder schedule than Pep Guardiola's side, who will meet Barcelona and PSG from pot one plus a tricky test against 24th-ranked Napoli from pot three.

Players to watch: Bellingham, Kvaratskhelia and rising stars

Several established names carry the individual spotlight. Jude Bellingham faces a defining season at Real Madrid under José Mourinho, settled into a number ten role that suits him well. After an excellent World Cup, his goalscoring threat and ability to decide big games make him a major focal point of the tournament.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, nicknamed "Mr. Champions", has been outstanding for PSG over the past two seasons. His ability to cut inside or go outside from the left wing, dangerous with either foot and technically superb, puts him firmly in the Ballon d'Or conversation. Alongside him, Lamine Yamal is hungry for more silverware with Hansi Flick's Barcelona, while Martin Odegaard has started the campaign with renewed energy after an injury-hit season.

Newcomers aiming to make their mark in the league phase

Cesc Fàbregas' Como are making their Champions League debut with a bold, entertaining project. Nico Paz, their number ten, pulls the strings in possession and looks destined to become a top-level star in the near future. Fàbregas has stayed loyal to the Lombardy bench despite offers elsewhere, giving stability to an idea built to reach the knockout rounds.

Lens are back in Europe's top competition after pushing PSG all the way in Ligue 1 last season. Their centre-back Ismaelo Ganiou, 21, is quick, physical and composed on the ball, and many expect him to leave for a major Premier League club at the end of the season. Shakhtar, meanwhile, continue their tradition of turning Brazilian talents into big-money sales: 20-year-old Kaua Elias is next in line.

What the league phase looks like for the underdogs

Austrian side LASK impressed by knocking out Celtic and head into the campaign aiming for a home win and a respectable points tally, though qualification looks a long shot. Azerbaijan's Sabah, built on organisation, face away trips to Arsenal and Manchester United plus home games against Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund: they could spring a surprise or two, but not enough to advance.

Norwegian side Viking take on Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid, Napoli and Aston Villa. Norwegian football is full of clever, competitive coaches and players, and the Scandinavian outfit could sneak into the knockout rounds if they turn their home ground into a fortress.

Where to watch match highlights every round

The BBC will show highlights of every Champions League match this season. On Wednesdays from 22:00, match-by-match highlights will be available on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app. There will also be a Champions League Match of the Day on BBC One from 22:40 until midnight. In weeks with Thursday matches, a special highlights show airs on BBC Two at 22:30.