Infantino faces no rival yet: how Fifa president is locking up re-election after World Cup fiasco

Gianni Infantino is not slowing down. The Fifa president wants to arrive at the March election with every vote locked in, and he is crisscrossing the planet to meet heads of state and federation leaders. He is doing it without a single declared opponent, even though Uefa, Concacaf and the Asian Football Confederation have openly called for him to go.

• Infantino is chasing a fourth mandate thanks to a statute interpretation based on the shorter length of his first term.
• No candidate has come forward yet, and the filing deadline closes on 18 November.
• The most plausible challengers have their own elections to fight or lack the backing they would need.
• Uefa has taken the FIFA Forward Enterprise case to US courts, accusing Fifa of criminal mismanagement.
• The Fifa congress vote is a secret ballot, which makes campaign promises nearly worthless.

How Fifa rules open the door to a fourth Infantino term

Infantino first announced his plan to seek a fourth and final term at the April congress in Vancouver. Fifa statutes limit presidents to three full terms, but a recent change allows him a fourth because his first period lasted three years instead of four, following his 2016 election to replace the disgraced Joseph Blatter. The 56-year-old Swiss reiterated his intention two weeks ago through a statement from Fifa's media team.

A private jet world tour backed by million-dollar projects

Since Fifa walked away from its World Cup commercial rights sale plan last month, Infantino has not stopped moving. He is expected to appear this week at the United Nations General Assembly in New York to lobby heads of state for their federations' support. His travel is done on a private jet provided by Qatar Airways as part of its sponsorship deal with world football's governing body.

The president's itinerary runs through his strongholds in Doha, Rabat and Miami, but also includes Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Kyrgyzstan and other countries. Those trips often coincide with the approval of development funding worth millions of dollars. Meanwhile, potential opponents have been notably quiet.

No one willing to run against the Fifa machine

Among confederation insiders, the prevailing view is that nobody will step forward while Infantino remains in the race. "As long as Gianni is running, I don't think anyone else will raise their hand," one source said. "They would effectively be running against Fifa the institution. Fifa declared his candidacy, provides staff, aeroplanes and cars, even a personal video team."

The most credible challenger is considered to be Concacaf president Victor Montagliani, but the Canadian has his own confederation election in February. Running in both contests is not seen as feasible, and he is understandably reluctant to give up Concacaf for a fight he would probably lose against Infantino.

AFC president Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa already lost to Infantino in 2016 and is further limited because his confederation's heavyweights — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — all back Infantino. Qatar's position also rules out a bid from Nasser Al-Khelaifi, chairman of the European Club Association. An open European move led by Uefa president Aleksander Ceferin would have no chance of succeeding, and Ceferin has his own presidential contest in March to focus on.

If he doesn't step down before March, the election will not be contested. Uefa and others could stage a boycott so the victory would be tainted, but Gianni will win a clear majority of whoever shows up.

Uefa's legal fight over the FIFA Forward Enterprise plan

With the electoral route effectively blocked, Uefa is concentrating its efforts on the courts. Last month the European body lodged a 56-page document with state courts in New York, Miami and Colorado, accusing Fifa of "criminal mismanagement" and demanding the disclosure of all documents related to the FIFA Forward Enterprise (FFE) project.

Fifa responded forcefully a week later. In its filing with the New York court, the governing body argued that Uefa's application "suffers from a fundamental defect." Its submission said Uefa is seeking discovery for a foreign criminal proceeding that does not exist and that Uefa lacks the authority to initiate. It described the move as little more than a press release in support of "a smear campaign" against Fifa and its leadership.

The $20bn valuation at the heart of the dispute

Uefa's hope is that the discovery process will show FFE was deliberately undervalued at $20bn to deliver a guaranteed future windfall to Joshua Kushner's Thrive Capital, which had apparently agreed to pay $4.2bn for a 21% stake in the new commercial venture.

A corporate fraud lawyer said undervaluing the project could potentially amount to a criminal offence by Fifa, a case Uefa would pursue in the Swiss courts. "If you're doing a deal that is way off market then you are deceiving the stakeholders," the legal source said. "All of that should come out during disclosure. If beyond that there were personal deals being struck on the side, that could also be criminal."

Fifa's revenues for the four-year cycle ending in 2026 are $15bn, with projections of $18bn for the following period. Thrive, meanwhile, bought 20% of the NBA's Lakers last month in a deal that valued the franchise at $12.5bn, a contrast that has sharpened scrutiny of the football valuation. There is no evidence of wrongdoing by any party involved in the proposed deal.

Thrive said in a statement that the proposal was meant to be voted on by Fifa's members, not an obligation. It also expressed some regret at getting involved: "We failed to appreciate the political dynamics of global football, and the lengths some would go to. Had we known what this would devolve into, we would not have gotten involved."

The Blatter shadow and the ticking nomination clock

For those working to remove Infantino, the election is not necessarily the end of the road. "This is a fight to the death now and we have to keep going," one source said. The comparison is with Blatter, re-elected in May 2015 and forced to resign a month later amid an FBI corruption investigation.

The discovery process, however, moves slowly. An initial court decision is expected next month, but Fifa's right to appeal makes it unlikely any new material will emerge before 18 November, the deadline for candidates to file. If the process is still running in March, the congress could vote to postpone the election, though that would require its own ballot.

Uefa and Concacaf are digging in. The two confederations are working together on a unified Nations League competition and last week sent a joint letter demanding Fifa release money from its $6bn reserves to fund an additional payment of at least $10m to each of the 211 member associations over the next four-year cycle. Some sort of payout appears inevitable, but they hope Infantino does not harvest political credit from it.