Is the Premier League title race already down to Arsenal and Manchester City?

Four games is generally too small a sample to decide who will be fighting for the Premier League title in May. Or at least that is the theory. The practice tells a different story: Arsenal and Manchester City, the two clubs that have occupied the top two places in three of the past four seasons, have perfect records and are already opening a gap on the rest. With several challengers still finding their feet under new managers, the title race is becoming an early head-to-head between the champions and Enzo Maresca's side.

Arsenal and Manchester City take a maximum 12 points from four games

After four rounds, Arsenal and Manchester City are the only teams to have won every match. Mikel Arteta's side have beaten Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland, as well as winning against Napoli in the Champions League. Maresca's team, meanwhile, have overcome Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Coventry, beaten Porto in Europe and rounded off the run with a controversial 1-0 win at Old Trafford.

That derby produced two talking points: Erling Haaland, who scored the only goal, and the refereeing body, which later admitted a mistake in not disallowing the strike for offside. Despite the controversy, City matched Arsenal's pace and both sides head into the fifth round with four wins from four.

Arsenal defend the title on a nine-game league winning run

Arsenal ended a 22-year wait for the Premier League title last season, a triumph built on resilient, efficient football. The new campaign has not changed the script. Arteta's men are now on nine consecutive league wins including the previous campaign, and have not lost a match in 90 minutes since 19 April, when they fell to City.

Their season opener also included a statement of intent: a 3-0 win over Manchester City in the Community Shield. Since then, the Londoners have conceded only once in the Premier League, the best defensive record in the division alongside the two goals City have let in.

Maresca's City keep winning without Guardiola

Manchester City began the season with a major change: the departure of Pep Guardiola after a decade and six league titles, including a Treble. Enzo Maresca, once his assistant, stepped in, and the transition has not slowed the team. Four wins from four confirm the structure remains in place.

The only blemish came before the league campaign, with the Community Shield defeat to Arsenal. Since then, a perfect run. The continuity is not the same as the champions', but the results are, and that keeps City in the hunt for what would be a first title under Maresca.

The numbers that add nuance to the leaders' dominance

A perfect start does not translate into overwhelming dominance in the underlying statistics. Brighton and Chelsea have both scored more goals than the eight Arsenal and City have managed. In shots, the two leaders rank 10th and 11th, and for touches in the opposition box they are sixth and fifth respectively.

What stands out is defensive solidity. Arsenal have conceded once and City twice, records that contrast sharply with the defensive struggles of several chasing clubs. Efficiency, rather than volume of play, explains their flawless starts.

Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Spurs stumble out of the gate

Chelsea sit fifth with a leaky defence

Chelsea have won three of their four matches and sit fifth, but they have conceded nine goals, the fourth-worst defensive record in the division. It is the first time since the 2015-16 season that the London club have shipped two or more goals in each of their opening four league games. Xabi Alonso, new in the dugout, is still searching for balance.

Liverpool are seventh and stuck at Anfield

Andoni Iraola's Liverpool remain unbeaten, but three of their four matches have ended in draws. The most worrying figure comes at home: it is only the third time in the last 63 years that they have failed to win either of their opening two league games at Anfield.

Manchester United are 13th and unable to convert their numbers

Michael Carrick's United have four points, equalling their worst start since 1992-93 and matching last season's tally at this stage. The paradox lies in their statistics: they lead the league in shots with 84 and have the second-fewest shots conceded with 41. Yet they have scored as many goals as they have let in: seven.

Tottenham are 17th without a single goal

Roberto de Zerbi's Spurs finished 17th in consecutive seasons and were hoping for a fresh start. Reality has been unforgiving: they are 17th again and, for the first time in the club's history, have failed to score in their opening four league matches. A start that extinguishes any expectation of competing near the top.

What history says about teams that win their first four games

A flawless start guarantees nothing. Of the 28 sides in the Premier League era to begin with four straight wins, only nine went on to lift the trophy, most recently Manchester City in 2023-24. There have been just six previous Premier League seasons in which two or more teams won each of their first four fixtures.

For the chasing pack there is a glimmer of hope: only two clubs have won the Premier League after being five or more points behind after four games. Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United managed it five times, and Pep Guardiola's City repeated the feat in 2020-21. Such comebacks, however, require a consistency that is currently nowhere to be seen at Anfield or Stamford Bridge.

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