Manchester City could play in next season's Champions League despite sanctions

Senior figures within English football are worried that Manchester City could take part in next season's Champions League even if they receive a heavy punishment for breaching the Premier League's financial regulations. The concern rests on one specific route: if City win the competition this season, they would qualify as holders, regardless of where they finish in the domestic pyramid.

• Senior football executives fear City could play in next season's Champions League despite a potential severe sanction.
• Winning the Champions League would qualify the club as titleholders, independent of their Premier League position.
• There is no automatic mechanism to remove City from a European competition reached on sporting merit.
• UEFA licences are based on current information and do not account for historical breaches.
• UEFA could open a case, but the 2020 CAS precedent makes a quick exclusion unlikely.

Why winning the Champions League would keep Manchester City in Europe

The rule is simple: the Champions League winner earns a place in the following edition as defending champion. If City lift the trophy this season, their qualification would not depend on their Premier League status. That possibility troubles those who believe it would be unacceptable for the club to compete among Europe's elite and receive the financial rewards that come with it, should a strong sanction be confirmed.

The breaches proven by the independent commission

The independent commission found City guilty of all charges related to inflating sponsorship revenue by £830m through sham contracts, as well as hiding additional expenses worth £90m. Without those amounts, the commission said, the club would have failed profit and sustainability rules in every season from 2009-10 through 2017-18.

City continue to deny any wrongdoing and have called the outcome a Premier League conspiracy. The club lodged an appeal against the verdict last week, extending a process in which the sanctioning hearing has not yet been scheduled.

The UEFA licence hurdle is not as clear as it seems

Every club needs a UEFA licence to play in Europe. In England, licences are issued by the Football Association, with the process delegated to the Premier League. The complication is that licences are drawn up using current information and do not reflect sanctions or breaches linked to historical offences. If a club meets the minimum admission criteria, the licence cannot be refused.

The usual reasons for rejection involve overdue payments to other clubs, players or tax authorities. Match-fixing convictions from the past decade or multi-club ownership integrity conflicts are also considered, but none of that applies to City. One source summed up the dilemma: licences are awarded based on current financial performance, so the grounds to refuse one are unclear.

What sanctions Manchester City could face

If the appeal fails, City could face severe punishment. Heavy points deductions, a large fine and transfer embargoes are all on the list, and immediate expulsion from the Premier League remains an option. A points deduction might rule City out of league qualification, but not out of the cups: winning the FA Cup or Carabao Cup would secure a place in the Europa League or Conference League respectively.

The timeline adds further uncertainty. Over the summer, the Premier League added clauses to its regulations setting timeframes for disciplinary processes and appeals. If they apply, a decision on the sanction would have to arrive no later than January. However, there is no confirmation that these clauses cover the City case, and the entire process might not be completed by the end of the season.

The 2020 precedent and UEFA's possible route

UEFA cannot act while the Premier League disciplinary process is ongoing, though its administration and club financial control body are expected to examine potential scenarios. The English case concluded that City committed five breaches of UEFA's own profit and sustainability rules, which could justify opening a disciplinary case.

There is no automatic mechanism to remove City from a European competition they qualify for on sporting merit.

City already won a similar fight in 2020. UEFA banned them from European competitions for two years for serious breaches of financial fair play rules between 2012 and 2016, the same period covered by the Premier League investigation. The Court of Arbitration for Sport overturned the ban because the offences were time-barred under UEFA's rules. If City win the Champions League again and UEFA attempts to remove them, the club financial control body would need to find a disciplinary solution. And given that precedent, there is concern City could come out on top once more.