Suspicious bets that correctly predicted the Ballon d'Or top five generate £149,000 and reach police

France Football, the publication that organises the Ballon d'Or, has opened an investigation and contacted the police after detecting a series of bets that anticipated the exact order of the award's top five finishers with complete precision. The wagers, placed through Polymarket, the American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, generated almost $200,000 in winnings, around £149,000.

Harry Kane was crowned the winner at the ceremony held at the London Palladium, ahead of Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi. That was exactly the order predicted by a group of accounts identified by French media outlet Upside, raising serious concerns about a potential leak of confidential results before the gala.

Accounts created in October with strikingly similar Polymarket patterns

Upside's investigation points to 12 Polymarket accounts created between 1 and 20 October. Their activity showed such striking similarities that analysts suspect they could be controlled by the same individual or group. Seven of the twelve accounts had never participated in any other betting market, and six placed their first bet just fifteen minutes after being registered.

Tracing transactions on the blockchain allowed investigators to follow the money to a French platform. After sharing wallet addresses and blockchain records with the company's team, the platform confirmed it had identified the person behind one of the accounts involved in funding the bets. The identity has not been made public, but the finding could help establish connections between the accounts and reconstruct the flow of money.

A strategy focused on a single scenario: Kane first and Messi fifth

The accounts did not diversify their bets across different outcomes. They concentrated their money on one specific sequence: Kane winning, Mbappé in second, Yamal in third, Rodri in fourth and Messi in fifth. Every position later matched the official results, translating into nearly $200,000 in profit.

One of the movements that has attracted the most attention involves an account that bought a contract on Kane winning at 37 cents and sold it when the price reached 67 cents. The funds were then redirected towards bets on specific finishing positions, including Yamal taking third place. The sequence suggests the account holder adjusted their strategy as the relevant markets developed.

France Football refers the case to the police

Upside handed its findings to France Football, which is owned by Groupe Amaury and has organised the award since 1956. The publication received confirmation on Friday afternoon that an investigation has been opened and that French police will also be informed. France Football has not made public statements about the case.

A secret kept by very few people

Before the ceremony, France Football had indicated that only a very small number of people knew the winner in advance. The possibility that confidential information reached betting accounts before the official announcement represents a serious problem for the award, particularly given the accuracy of the predictions and the amounts of money involved.

"How do we keep the winner's identity hidden? I think a well-kept secret is one that is shared with as few people as possible," former France Football editor Pascal Ferré said last week.

What is at stake for the Ballon d'Or

The Ballon d'Or is the most prestigious individual award in football and has been presented since 1956. The credibility of the voting process depends heavily on the result remaining secret until the gala. A large-scale leak, with coordinated bets and substantial profits, would call internal confidentiality protocols into question and open a debate about information security at major sporting awards.

Polymarket operates as a cryptocurrency-based prediction market and allows users to buy and sell contracts on the outcome of real-world events. Unlike a traditional bookmaker, on such platforms prices fluctuate according to the probability the market assigns to each result, leaving a public trail on the blockchain that investigators can follow.