The four scenarios for the Premier League after the Manchester City verdict

The Manchester City saga is far from over. Two years and ten days after the hearing began, and 1,329 days after the club was charged, it has emerged that City have been found guilty of the majority of financial rule breaches. Neither the Premier League nor the club has confirmed it officially: the news broke because a media outlet learned of the verdict and published it.

• Manchester City have been found guilty of most of the financial charges, according to reports.
• The Premier League has not commented and the club says the process is still ongoing, with an appeal expected.
• A points deduction appears inevitable, though a sanction hearing may still be months away.
• Several Premier League clubs are seeking legal advice about compensation claims against City.
• The key question is whether any punishment is applied this season or delayed until an appeal is resolved.

A points deduction looks almost certain for Manchester City

The charges are so serious that some form of points deduction now appears inevitable, subject to an appeal from a club that has always insisted it did nothing wrong. The question is no longer whether a punishment will arrive, but when and how it will be applied, a decision that matters both for City and for the league as a whole.

Deciding the punishment should be quicker than establishing guilt, but nothing is straightforward in this case. Because the charges have been denied, the matter will go to a sanction hearing convened by the independent panel. That process could still be months away, and the outcome may not even be published until the appeal is completed.

What sanctions could Manchester City face over the 115 charges

At the sanction hearing, everything will be on the table: fines, points deductions and even demotion. Unlike Chelsea, who admitted their guilt earlier this year and were able to negotiate a settlement with the league, City have denied the allegations vigorously from day one. That stance makes a negotiated resolution difficult, even though an agreement would still be the cleanest way out for the Premier League.

The precedents suggest a severe punishment. Everton were docked six points, reduced from ten on appeal, and then two more, for breaching profit and sustainability rules. Nottingham Forest lost four points. Those were considered minor breaches. City face seven separate charges for PSR breaches in the Premier League alone, plus five more related to UEFA competitions.

The charges are so serious that some form of points deduction now appears inevitable, subject to the appeal by City, who have always insisted they have done nothing wrong.

What is at stake if the sanction does not arrive this season

If the campaign ends without a decision on the punishment while City are known to have been found guilty, the credibility of the competition will be severely tested. Applying a penalty retrospectively to the current season seems unlikely. That leaves awkward scenarios on the table: a team finishing third from bottom and being relegated could argue it would have stayed up had the points been deducted in time.

The inertia is terrible news for the Premier League as a competition. For the integrity of the table, every club needs to know what it is playing for sooner rather than later. Last season, a points deduction for West Bromwich Albion over profit and sustainability breaches was not announced until 24 April. Although they ultimately stayed in the Championship, the late punishment dragged them back into a relegation fight they thought was over.

Manchester City's appeal and the timeline for a final decision

The usual process when a points penalty is handed down is that it takes effect immediately, subject to appeal. If the deduction is large enough, it would amount to relegation in practice. There is also the possibility that City's membership of the Premier League could be revoked, though how that would work mid-season is unclear. A heavy fine alone seems unlikely given the point deductions imposed on other clubs.

The regulations set timelines for appeals, but it is uncertain whether they would apply to such an unusual case. Normally a club has fourteen days to appeal; here, with neither the league nor City commenting, it is unclear whether that clock has started or will only begin once the sanction is announced. An appeal cannot be ruled out: City already won their challenge against a two-year Champions League ban imposed by UEFA in 2020. This time, however, they cannot take the case to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Premier League clubs explore compensation claims against Manchester City

Beyond the sporting sanction, City face a legal front opened by their own rivals. Several Premier League clubs are seeking legal advice about claiming compensation over the case. A source who held senior executive roles at two top-flight clubs expects individual claims to be submitted, while another leading lawyer believes the league could even centralise the process.

League rules allow clubs to pursue legal action against each other for compensation. The immediate precedent is Everton, who were ordered to pay Burnley £35 million after breaching profit and sustainability rules over a three-year period, with Burnley arguing the breach contributed to their relegation. Everton are appealing that ruling, but the case sets the tone for what could follow.

How far could claims against City go

The list of potential claimants goes well beyond Manchester United and Liverpool, who finished runners-up to City in title-winning seasons. It also includes clubs who narrowly missed out on the Champions League, lost a European place or were relegated. The amounts could rise sharply once lost commercial income and prize money are factored in.

Kieran Maguire, professor of football finance at the University of Liverpool, estimates that Champions League qualification alone was worth at least £30 million in prize money at the start of the period in question, rising to £60 or £70 million by 2018. On top of that, clubs could claim for lost gate receipts, sponsor bonuses and the player bonuses tied to European qualification, which at elite clubs usually run to around 25% of salary. With average wages of £80,000 to £90,000 a week in the early part of the last decade, the numbers add up quickly.

Frequently asked questions about the Manchester City sanction