Three-week international break puts Premier League managers under pressure: Arbeloa and Carrick in focus

The Premier League heads into a three-week international break, longer than usual, and the pause arrives at the worst possible moment for several managers. Fulham and Manchester United close the round on Sunday at Craven Cottage, with Alvaro Arbeloa and Michael Carrick both wrestling with poor starts. Neither coach can afford another slip before their players scatter around the world on international duty.

• Three managers have already lost their jobs this season: Paul Heckingbottom, Michael Duff and Luke Williams.
• Arbeloa is winless in four Premier League games and has lost three of them with Fulham.
• Carrick is coming off an EFL Cup defeat to Brighton and has only beaten Ipswich Town and Sabah.
• International breaks are not normally used to fire managers, but pressure grows in October and November.
• Roberto de Zerbi is still winless in the Premier League with Tottenham after spending close to £300m.

Arbeloa and Fulham running out of time before the pause

Alvaro Arbeloa arrived at Fulham in the summer with a very short record as a head coach: only 28 games in charge of Real Madrid during the second half of last season. His Premier League start could hardly have been worse. Four matches, no wins and three defeats have already set alarm bells ringing at Craven Cottage.

Beyond the results, the mood inside the dressing room is not helping either. Some players' social media activity has fuelled talk of unrest with the Spaniard's methods. His significant tactical changes since replacing Marco Silva, who spent five years at the club, have left the Cottagers exposed at the back, although the goalless draw at Anfield against Liverpool showed a more solid version of the team.

Carrick and a Manchester United side that cannot slip at Craven Cottage

Michael Carrick faces a similar picture at Old Trafford. The 3-2 EFL Cup exit against Brighton hurt badly: United led by two goals at home and ended up losing, something that had not happened to them since Tottenham pulled off the same scoreline in 1976. That defeat followed a 1-0 loss to a Manchester City side reduced to ten men.

With only two wins all season, against Ipswich Town and Sabah, every game has become a test for Carrick. The manager believes it would be ridiculous to describe the trip to Fulham as make or break, and his record backs that up: last season he guided United into the Champions League. But defeat at Craven Cottage, their first there since 2009 and against a team bottom of the table with a single point, would trigger endless external inquests just as the club prepares to resume against Tottenham on 10 October.

Do clubs use international breaks to sack managers?

This year's September international break arrives later and stretches to three weeks, two changes that make it feel like a natural turning point. Yet the evidence from the past decade suggests clubs do not usually pull the trigger during these pauses. Only two managers were dismissed in the September break in the last ten years: Javi Gracia at Watford in 2019 and Nuno Espirito Santo at Nottingham Forest last year.

October is not especially treacherous either: Francesco Guidolin at Swansea in 2016 and Xisco Munoz at Watford in 2021 were the only victims in that period. The pattern shifts in November, when as many as six bosses have lost their jobs over the past decade. Even so, nine managers had already departed by this stage of previous seasons, so the current calm does not guarantee stability.

In my time, the October and November international breaks, the pause just after Christmas, and then early March were the three sticking points for any manager struggling with results.

Tony Pulis on why international breaks raise the risk of a sacking

Tony Pulis, the former Stoke City, West Bromwich Albion and Middlesbrough boss, knows the psychology of the dugout well. He explains that weeks without matches allow clubs to bring in a new manager with time to settle, meet the staff and prepare for a first game without rush. After Christmas, the opening fixture is often an FA Cup tie, which gives another chance to assess the squad away from league pressure.

Pulis does not view the September break as a flashing red light, arguing it is simply too early in the campaign. But he warns that later stoppages do become traps for managers who arrive struggling. He also has a particular gripe about this early pause: whether a team is winning or losing, stopping momentum so soon is a nightmare because of international travel and the risk of injuries.

Other dugouts feeling the heat ahead of the international break

Roberto de Zerbi's Tottenham have not won in the Premier League after five games, a poor return for a squad reinforced with around £300m of new talent. The owners are getting very little bang for their buck in points and goals, but the Italian is not under pressure: the feeling is that the team is starting to perform and simply needs things to click. Still, the patience will not last forever.

Burnley and Watford keeping a close eye on their managers

Nicky Hayen's position at Burnley looks fragile. He left Genk to lead the Clarets' bid for an immediate return to the Premier League, but the project is stalling: they began as third favourites for promotion behind West Ham and Wolves and are winless in their first eight games. The 1-1 draw against Derby, with the Rams equalising in stoppage time, left Burnley bottom of the table and the Belgian admitting before kick-off that the match was a must-win. The board may now consider its options.

Derby manager John Eustace, who nearly took the club to the play-offs last season, is not safe either with the team in the relegation zone. At Watford, Alessio Dionisi knows exactly how hot the seat can get: he is the club's 27th permanent manager in just under 18 years. With two wins from eight league games and the Hornets sitting 19th, three points above the drop zone, Gino Pozzo may decide an early change is needed.

What to expect when the Premier League returns

The Premier League resumes with fixtures that could shape the future of several managers. United host Tottenham on 10 October in a game loaded with urgency for Carrick, especially if his side fail to win at Craven Cottage on Sunday. Arbeloa, for his part, needs Fulham to turn the defensive solidity shown at Anfield into points.

History suggests clubs rarely dismiss managers during these breaks, but the three-week pause and the pile-up of poor results intensify the spotlight. If results do not improve when the action returns, the October and November stoppages look like far more likely dates for the axe to fall.