Vinicius two years after the Ballon d'Or: from 0.67 to 0.15 goals per game in LaLiga

On the night of October 28, 2024, Vinicius Junior turned disappointment into a public promise. Hours after the Ballon d'Or went to Rodri, the Brazilian forward posted a message that would become one of the most quoted lines in recent football: his intention to win the trophy ten times if needed. Two years later, the data across four distinct periods tell a different story, one of gradual decline in almost every area of his game.

• His LaLiga scoring rate has fallen from 0.67 to 0.15 goals per 90 minutes since the 2023-24 season.
• In the current Champions League campaign he has not scored and averages just 0.10 xG per game.
• Completed dribbles in LaLiga dropped from 2.78 to 2.15 per 90 minutes.
• He loses fewer balls than ever, but also attempts fewer take-ons than in his prime.
• In the Ballon d'Or vote he went from second place in 2024 to 17th in the latest edition.

The scoring collapse: Vinicius goes from 0.67 to 0.15 goals per 90 minutes

During his best stretch, covering the 2023-24 season and the start of 2024-25 up to the Ballon d'Or gala, Vinicius averaged 0.67 goals per 90 minutes in LaLiga and 0.80 in the Champions League. In 2026-27, that figure stands at 0.15 in the domestic competition and zero in Europe. The average time between his LaLiga goals has stretched from 125 minutes to 585, meaning he now waits more than six full matches for a goal that used to arrive every hour and change.

His total attacking contribution has followed the same path. In his best LaLiga season he combined for 1.04 goals and assists per 90 minutes; that number is now 0.62. In the Champions League the drop is even sharper, from 1.00 to zero.

The Ballon d'Or wound: the first decline came right after the ceremony

The loss of efficiency did not happen overnight. In the final stretch of 2024-25, after the Ballon d'Or had been decided, his LaLiga goals fell from 0.67 to 0.36 per 90 minutes and his Champions League output from 0.80 to 0.56. His chance generation remained largely intact: xG in LaLiga barely moved from 0.49 to 0.43, and big chances went from 1.04 to 0.72 per 90 minutes.

What did collapse sharply in Europe was his dribbling. In the Champions League after the ceremony, Vinicius went from attempting 8.33 take-ons per 90 minutes to 5.75, and from completing 3.69 to 1.82. The competitive setback coincided with a clear drop in his ability to beat defenders.

2025-26: a mirage of recovery with finishing problems

The 2025-26 campaign offered a more respectable version in LaLiga: 0.51 goals per 90 minutes, a 61.3% shot accuracy rate and a reduction in balls lost to 16.28 per game. In the Champions League, however, the picture was contradictory. His xG per 90 climbed to 0.62, the best of the four periods, and his big chances rose to 1.15, but he converted only 0.38 goals per game and missed 0.92 of those clear opportunities, his worst mark in that category.

European chance production was higher than ever, but conversion became the weak point. The problem was no longer arriving, but finishing.

2026-27: same areas, less threat and record-low accuracy

The current season confirms the trend in LaLiga. Shot accuracy has dropped to 38.9%, the worst of the entire cycle, and completed dribbles are down to 2.15 per 90 minutes. In the Champions League, the diagnosis is even more severe: zero goals, 0.10 xG, no big chances created and just 2.08 attempted take-ons per game, far from the eight-plus of his best era.

One detail prevents a full verdict of abandonment: touches in the opposition box remain high at 10.46 in LaLiga, even above his prime. Vinicius still reaches the same dangerous areas, but with far less sharpness in front of goal.

What the Ballon d'Or rankings say and what comes next at Real Madrid

The Ballon d'Or vote has reflected that slide. In 2024, Vinicius finished second, a result that much of the football world saw as unfair and that the player himself turned into a personal banner. A year later he dropped to 16th, and in the most recent edition he placed 17th.

Real Madrid, however, has not let go: the club renewed his contract until 2032 precisely when the numbers called for caution. That commitment now coexists with the need to recover the version that terrified defenders. His LaLiga xG of 0.47 this season, almost identical to his prime, offers a reason for hope: the path to the box is still there. What has slipped away is the final movement, the decisive shot that has become his biggest debt to the goal over the past two years.