Why English clubs face a bleak Champions League future without Manchester City

The era of English hegemony in the Champions League, so often predicted, threatens to fade away before it has even fully materialized. Manchester City's potential absence next season, stemming from the sanctions that could be imposed after being found guilty of more than a hundred charges brought by the Premier League, would leave English football in a delicate position on the continent. Without their greatest sporting exponent, the challenge from Premier League clubs would be reduced to a consolidated Arsenal and a Liverpool side in the midst of a rebuild.

• Manchester City face the possibility of missing the Champions League following their conviction for financial irregularities in the Premier League.
• The much-touted financial superiority of the Premier League has not translated into real dominance on the pitch, with just one City title in recent years.
• Arsenal appear to be the only English representative with guarantees of competing consistently in the final rounds.
• Historic clubs such as Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham are going through sporting and institutional crises that keep them away from the European elite.
• The ability of English teams to perform in direct knockout ties is hampered by the physical toll of the domestic season.

Manchester City, a European giant that never managed to dominate

When Manchester City finally conquered the Champions League in 2023 in Istanbul, it happened in a setting located just a few miles from Asia. Now, for a very different reason, they could miss out on the competition next season. That long-sought triumph did not usher in the era of dominance many anticipated. Despite being a regular in the knockout rounds, the Citizens have only lifted the trophy once and have reached one additional final.

Their last two continental campaigns, eliminated in the play-offs and the round of 16 respectively, show a decline in the UEFA coefficient. The team that used to top the club ranking now sits in sixth place, based more on points accumulated between 2022 and 2024 than on recent performance. Without City, only Arsenal would remain among the top seven positions in the ranking, an eloquent indicator of the English competitive decline.

Arsenal and Liverpool, the meager English resistance

If Manchester City disappeared from the European map, the English challenge would fall almost exclusively on two clubs. Arsenal, managed by Mikel Arteta, is the only project that conveys the feeling of being able to settle permanently into the final rounds. Without having yet taken the definitive step of winning the title, it is easy to imagine the Londoners competing on a recurring basis in the decisive knockout ties.

Liverpool, for their part, have finished first and third in the league phase in the last two seasons, falling on both occasions to Paris Saint-Germain. However, the Anfield side is in the midst of a transition following Jurgen Klopp's departure. They are no longer the formidable outfit that reached three finals under the German coach, and their ability to prevail in Europe remains to be proven.

The fall of the spending giants: Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham

The decline is particularly painful at the clubs that have spent the most. Manchester United have only reached the quarter-finals of Europe's top competition twice since Sir Alex Ferguson retired. Far from fighting for the title, the Old Trafford side have often struggled to qualify, and they already look unlikely to be present in the next edition.

Chelsea, despite an investment close to two billion pounds in signings, have lost weight as a continental force. In the Clearlake Capital era, with or without Todd Boehly, they have only managed a fifth-place finish in the English league. The recent Club World Cup title does not hide a dramatic regression, and the possible arrival of Xabi Alonso on the bench offers no guarantee of an immediate solution.

The case of Tottenham is equally illustrative. Last summer they spent like Champions League challengers, but two consecutive seventeenth-place finishes and their current presence in the relegation zone reflect a deep crisis. The gap between the money spent and the performance achieved is abysmal.

Aston Villa and Newcastle, the ceiling for emerging challengers

The clubs trying to break the established hierarchy run into their own limitations. Unai Emery's Aston Villa, a Europa League specialist, produced a brilliant campaign in their last Champions League appearance: they beat Bayern Munich, reached the quarter-finals and gave PSG a scare. That performance, however, seemed like the best-case scenario for a team without the turnover or recent history of the Premier League's major powers.

That squad has now broken up, and the new Villa Park project may not return to the Champions League next year. Newcastle's experience, having failed to secure qualification in consecutive seasons, illustrates the difficulty of performing at the same time in the demanding English league and in the continental competition. If City were ruled out and the faltering starts of United, Villa and Spurs were to continue, one of the season's overachievers, such as Brighton, Brentford or Everton, could sneak into Europe's top club competition. A welcome change in some respects, but one that would hardly scare Bayern or Barcelona.

Premier League fatigue takes a toll in the knockout rounds

Recent evidence suggests that the financial muscle of the Premier League is enough to win league phase matches, but much less so to overcome direct knockout ties against the European elite. When March and April arrive, the accumulated fatigue of the English calendar takes its toll. English teams face fresher opponents, and with fewer so-called superpowers involved, the likelihood of falling outside the top eight and having to contest the knockout play-offs increases.

Historically, the English coefficient has been built around the points accumulated by Manchester City. Although the purchasing power of Premier League clubs should continue to guarantee a sufficient harvest of points in the Europa League, the Conference League and the Champions League group stage to maintain five places, the idea of English dominance has long been overstated. Only three champions in the last fourteen years and seven in the last forty-two support this reading. Without City, that perception of superiority could vanish altogether.